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Published on: April 20, 2018
Global Annualized Recurrence Rates and Dynamic Risk Profiles in Head and Neck Cancer
Yiqiao Fang1,2,3, Cheng Yi1, Ruonan Sun1
1Division of Thyroid Surgery, Department of General Surgery, Laboratory of Thyroid and Parathyroid Diseases, Frontiers Science Center for Disease-Related Molecular Network, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
International Journal of Cancer
|July 27, 2026
Summary
Head and neck cancer (HNC) recurrence is a major survival issue. This study found a global recurrence rate of 6.57 per 100 person-years, with significant variations by country income and cancer subsite.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- Recurrence significantly impacts survival in head and neck cancer (HNC).
- Annualized recurrence rates are poorly defined due to inconsistent follow-up durations in existing studies.
- Defining accurate recurrence rates is crucial for effective patient management and surveillance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review and meta-analyze global head and neck cancer recurrence rates.
- To identify factors contributing to heterogeneity in recurrence rates, including follow-up duration, geographic setting, and clinical characteristics.
- To quantify the mortality risk associated with recurrent HNC.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of 1060 studies.
- Inclusion of data from 336,615 patients and 1.40 million person-years of follow-up.
- Person-time analysis to estimate global and stratified recurrence rates.
Main Results:
- A global annualized recurrence rate of 6.57 per 100 person-years was estimated.
- Higher recurrence rates were observed in lower-middle-income countries (10.16) and hypopharyngeal cancers (14.11).
- Follow-up duration was a significant factor in heterogeneity; shorter follow-up correlated with higher reported rates. The case fatality rate for recurrent HNC was 55.80%.
Conclusions:
- Head and neck cancer recurrence is frequent and exhibits significant time-dependent patterns.
- Risk-adapted surveillance and histology-specific prevention strategies are needed to reduce recurrence-related mortality.
- Understanding recurrence heterogeneity is key for improving outcomes in head and neck cancer patients.
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