Modelling the Effects of Future Climate Conditions on Oil Palm Microbial Diseases and Poor Oil Palm Development,...

Maintaining food systems in the face of climate change (CC) is a major concern. Palm oil is included in many commodities, and oil palms (OPs) will be adversely affected by an inclement future climate, which could cause OPs to experience increases in disease incidence, higher mortality and a decline in growth. Basal stem rot, bud rot and Fusarium wilt of the OP are considered in the present paper, as attempts to control these diseases have been unsuccessful. A new approach may be the replacement of compromised OPs with different crops better suited to the future climate and which may exhibit fewer diseases initially because of the "parasites lost" phenomenon. Maintaining a vegetable oil product is an important advantage of this approach. How CC will affect OPs has been determined previously by CLIMEX modelling. The modelling of a future suitable climate has also been carried out for soybeans, maize and the common bean using the same modelling parameters. This enables direct comparisons with the OP production in countries such as Colombia, Nigeria and Papua New Guinea. Limited data for rapeseed are also available. The results show that the suitability of future suitable climate for OPs was much reduced in these countries and that for soybeans remained beneficial. Under these conditions, soybeans may exhibit fewer diseases, as they would be an introduced and annual crop. Maize exhibited far fewer advantages, and the common bean and rapeseed showed none. Maize exhibited potential advantages in Nigeria until 2050. A novel method for adapting to the serious diseases, poor growth and mortality of OPs would be to grow soybeans in regions similar to those in which OPs currently grow, but for which modelling suggests that their health will become limited. Plans, which could be modified when real-time data become available, could be made for replacing OPs with soybeans. This current paper provides a novel method for mitigating the future diseases, poor growth and mortality of OPs whilst maintaining valuable oil production.