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The ImproveCareNow Registry: Prediction of remission rates in paediatric Crohn's disease
Jonathan Van Hecke1, Gigi Veereman2, Koen Huysentruyt2
1Geneeskunde en Farmacie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB), Brussels, Belgium.
Insights
Female sex, younger age, and higher BMI predict poor outcomes in pediatric Crohn's disease (CD). Early or late use of biologics also impacts remission time, guiding future therapeutic strategies for pediatric CD patients.
Area of Science:
- Pediatric Gastroenterology
- Inflammatory Bowel Disease Research
- Clinical Trial Analysis
Background:
- Identifying predictors of poor outcomes (POPO) in pediatric Crohn's disease (CD) is crucial for optimizing treatment strategies.
- Previous studies have explored various factors, but a comprehensive analysis of predictors for both short-term and long-term remission is needed.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess predictors of 2-year non-remission in pediatric CD patients.
- To evaluate factors influencing time to first remission (TFR), corticosteroid-free remission (TCSFR), and sustained remission (TSR).
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from 6959 pediatric CD patients (2007-2023) from the ImproveCareNow Registry.
- Remission defined as Pediatric CD Activity Index <10. Logistic and Cox regression models were used with multiple imputation to identify predictors.
Main Results:
- Female sex and later ustekinumab use predicted non-remission at 2 years.
- Female sex and infliximab (IFX) use at the first visit predicted longer TFR.
- Female sex, white race, and IFX treatment were associated with longer TCSFR, while Asian race and CS/immunomodulator use were linked to longer TCSFR.
- Older age at diagnosis and higher BMI predicted longer TSR.
Conclusions:
- Clinical factors like female sex, younger age, and higher BMI are associated with poor outcomes in pediatric CD.
- Therapeutic strategies, including the timing of biologic use, significantly influence remission.
- These findings can guide personalized treatment approaches for pediatric CD.
Objectives:
Identifying predictors of poor outcomes (POPO) in paediatric Crohn's disease (CD) may guide therapy. We assessed predictors of 2-year non-remission (primary outcome) and time to first remission (TFR), corticosteroid-free remission (TCSFR, ≥3 months corticosteroid (CS) withdrawal and sustained remission (TSR, ≥6 months) (secondary outcomes) in paediatric CD.
Methods:
We retrospectively analysed prospectively collected data from 6959 paediatric CD patients (<18 years; 2007-2023) in the ImproveCareNow Registry. Remission was defined as a short Paediatric CD Activity Index <10. Logistic and Cox regression (α = 0.05), using R 4.5.0 with multiple imputation, identified predictors for both outcomes (at 0, 1, 5, 6, 12, and 24 months).
Results:
For the primary outcome, 53/794 patients (6.7%) failed to achieve remission during 2-year follow-up. Female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 3.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.48-6.55) and need for ustekinumab after 1 year (OR = 14.70, 95% CI 4.37-49.46) predicted non-remission. For the secondary outcomes (n = 3290), mean TFR, TCSFR and TSR were 4.5, 16.4, and 8.2 months, respectively. Longer TFR was predicted by female sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92) and the need for infliximab (IFX, HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.32) at first visit. Longer TCSFR was associated with female sex (HR = 0.85, 95% CI 0.78-0.93), race (white HR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.74-0.93 and Asian HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.05-1.92) and type of treatment at first visit (faster if IFX, slower if CS or immunomodulators). For TSR, predictors included age at diagnosis (HR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02-1.11) and body mass index (BMI) (HR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-1.00).
Conclusions:
Clinical parameters (female sex, younger age, and higher BMI) and therapeutic strategy (early/late use of biologicals) are POPO and associated with longer time to remission in paediatric CD.
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