Projected family physician workforce shortages in Canada through 2034: A scenario-based supply-demand modelling study

Canada's family physician (FP) shortage limits access to primary care and poses challenges for the healthcare system. To address these challenges, model-based supply-demand projections help identify workforce gaps and inform health workforce planning.

To project national and scenario-based supply-demand gaps for family physicians in Canada through 2034 and assess the potential impact of policy-relevant scenarios on future gaps.

FP supply and demand projections were based on the Canadian Institute of Health Information (CIHI)'s Physician Resource Planning Tool (PRPT), which incorporates workforce supply, inflows, outflows, and new education/training seats. Demand integrates health services utilization and population projections, adjusted for primary care unattachment rates from the 2022 Canadian Community Health Survey. Workforce gaps were presented as full-time equivalents (FTEs) and headcounts. Base case analyses reflect the status quo, while scenario analyses consider factors like population growth, disease prevalence, early retirements, and greater use of nurse practitioners.

In the base case, the national FP supply-demand gap is projected at 25,288 FTEs (27,344 headcounts) by 2034. Scenario analyses show variability from 23,310 FTEs (25,155 headcounts) under the lower attachment scenario, to 30,904 FTEs (34,751 headcounts) under early retirement.

Substantial supply-demand gaps are projected through 2034, but scenario analyses show the influence of policy-relevant factors on potential shortages. These projections support proactive interventions to address workforce gaps. Ongoing refinement of workforce modelling, including interprofessional primary care teams, is warranted.