Economic uncertainty shocks and cause-specific mortality

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Economics
• Time-Series Econometrics

Background:

• Economic uncertainty is known to negatively affect employment and production.
• The long-term health consequences of economic uncertainty shocks are not well understood.
• Previous research has not extensively explored the temporal relationship between uncertainty shocks and mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the propagation patterns of economic uncertainty shocks on mortality.
• To investigate the immediate and lagged effects of uncertainty shocks on various causes of death.
• To understand the transmission dynamics of health impacts stemming from economic uncertainty.

Main Methods:

• Employed a time-series econometric model.
• Utilized daily data from the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.
• Used the UK national death registry data for mortality analysis.

Main Results:

• Observed immediate increases in suicide and drug poisoning deaths, rising by up to 2.3% and persisting for three weeks.
• Found an increase in cardiovascular mortality by 0.9%, persisting for one week, with a secondary modest rise in weeks five and six.
• Demonstrated that uncertainty shocks have distinct transmission patterns across different causes of death.

Conclusions:

• Economic uncertainty shocks have a demonstrable impact on mortality rates, affecting both individual behaviors and systemic health responses.
• The study reveals specific time horizons over which different causes of death respond to economic uncertainty.
• Findings underscore the importance of considering economic factors in public health strategies and interventions.