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Alcohol-related cirrhosis mortality, 1990-2021: temporal trends and development-level inequalities
Mohsen Farrokhpour1, Mehdi Azizmohammad Looha2, Amir Fallahnia3
1Firouzgar Hospital, Department of Internal Medicine, School of Medicine, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Global alcohol-related cirrhosis mortality decreased by 24% from 1990 to 2021, with faster declines in more developed nations. However, mortality is rising in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, highlighting regional disparities in liver disease burden.
Area of Science:
- Global Health
- Epidemiology
- Liver Disease Research
Background:
- Alcohol-related cirrhosis is a significant cause of liver mortality.
- Long-term global patterns of this disease are not fully understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze global and regional trends in alcohol-related cirrhosis mortality from 1990 to 2021.
- To examine the impact of the Human Development Index (HDI) on mortality rates.
- To compare spatial clusters of high-burden regions over time.
Main Methods:
- Utilized age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.
- Employed joinpoint regression for temporal trend analysis.
- Applied multilevel longitudinal modeling to assess HDI impact and Local Moran's I for spatial clustering.
Main Results:
- Global ASMR for alcohol-related cirrhosis fell by 24% (5.40 to 4.08 per 100,000) between 1990 and 2021.
- Relative declines were greater in females than males, with steepest decreases in North Africa/Middle East and increases in Eastern Europe/Central Asia.
- More developed countries showed faster yearly ASMR declines; spatial analysis indicated a shift of hotspots to Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Conclusions:
- While global mortality from alcohol-related cirrhosis has declined, significant regional variations persist.
- Mortality is increasing in Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and declines are faster in more developed countries.
- Targeted alcohol control strategies and strengthened health systems are crucial, particularly in less-developed and high-burden regions.
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