Barrett's esophagus around the world: a systematic review and predictive modeling study

Area of Science:

• Gastroenterology
• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Accurate prevalence data for Barrett's esophagus (BE) are essential for effective screening and surveillance.
• BE affects a significant global population, necessitating a clear understanding of its epidemiology.

Purpose of the Study:

• To synthesize evidence on the global prevalence of Barrett's esophagus (BE).
• To estimate the global burden of BE and examine variations in prevalence across studies.
• To project future BE prevalence trends.

Main Methods:

• A systematic literature search was conducted across major databases (PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE) up to January 2026.
• Data from 52 studies, encompassing approximately 8.4 million participants from 24 countries, were analyzed.
• Linear regression and generalized additive models were employed to forecast BE prevalence through 2050.

Main Results:

• The pooled mean prevalence of BE was 5.76%, with wide variations (0.06%–37.4%) observed.
• Prevalence was significantly higher in symptomatic endoscopy cohorts (4.8%) compared to population-based cohorts (1.2%).
• Forecast models projected BE prevalence to reach 11.2%–13.2% by 2050.

Conclusions:

• Reported BE prevalence is highly variable due to differences in diagnostic criteria, study populations, and methodologies.
• Standardized definitions, biopsy protocols, and reporting practices are critical for improving epidemiologic accuracy.
• Enhanced accuracy in BE epidemiology will better inform screening and surveillance strategies.