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Drug Use Burden and Enforcement Indicators in Nigeria: A Retrospective Ecological Analysis
Ovie Martin Albert1,2, Alexander Arthur3,4
1VODP, Addiction and Mental Health, Centennial Centre for Mental Health and Brain Injury, Alberta Health Services / Recovery Alberta, Ponoka, Alberta, Canada.
Summary
Nigeria
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Criminology
Background:
- Nigeria faces significant illicit drug use and increased law enforcement.
- Geographic alignment between drug enforcement and population drug use burden is unclear.
- Ecological assessment of enforcement-burden concordance in Nigeria.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the geographic alignment of drug enforcement and drug use burden in Nigeria.
- To introduce the Total Seizure-to-Any-Drug-User Ratio (TSUR) as a surveillance metric.
- To contextualize enforcement activities with epidemiological data.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective ecological analysis of Nigeria's six geopolitical zones.
- Utilized 2018 Drug Use in Nigeria survey data for drug use burden.
- Extracted 2021-2022 National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) seizure, arrest, and conviction data.
Main Results:
- Past-year drug use prevalence varied from 10.0% to 22.4% across zones.
- TSUR showed significant geographic variation (<5 kg to >300 kg per 1,000 users).
- Positive but unstable correlations between seizure weight and estimated users were observed.
Conclusions:
- Significant regional disparities exist in drug use burden and enforcement across Nigeria.
- Partial geographic concordance between seizures and estimated drug user burden was found.
- TSUR offers a scalable metric for data-constrained settings, requiring cautious interpretation.
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