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Any Given Sunday? Exploring Transitivity in the NFL
Rebekah A Wanic1, Julia Sciallo1, Mike Raphaeli2
1Department of Psychological Sciences, University of San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA.
Psychological Reports
|August 5, 2026
Summary
Transitive logic helps predict outcomes in competitive settings. This study found transitivity in National Football League (NFL) results and showed people expect it, though game location surprisingly had no effect on actual outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Science
- Social Psychology
- Sports Analytics
Background:
- Transitive logic is crucial for rank judgments in social and competitive environments.
- Sporting events, with their mix of consistent performance and upsets, provide a unique context for studying transitivity.
- Existing research has evaluated transitive outcomes in sports but has not deeply explored expectations of transitivity or its real-world implications.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the presence of transitivity in historical National Football League (NFL) game results.
- To investigate expectations of transitivity in hypothetical sports matchups.
- To examine the influence of game location and margin of victory on transitive outcomes and expectations.
Main Methods:
- Historical analysis of NFL game results from 1970 to 2025.
- Experimental investigation using hypothetical sports matchups to gauge predictive expectations.
- Statistical analysis of game location and margin of victory effects on transitivity.
Main Results:
- Transitivity was observed in real-world NFL game outcomes.
- Participants accurately predicted transitive relationships in hypothetical scenarios.
- Game location did not significantly impact transitive likelihood in actual NFL games, but participants factored in home-field advantage in predictions.
- Larger margins of victory correlated with stronger evidence of transitivity in historical data and higher expectations in predictions.
Conclusions:
- Transitive logic is a valid framework for understanding outcomes in professional sports.
- While participants' expectations align with transitive principles, real-world factors like game location may not always conform to predictions.
- Margin of victory is a significant predictor of transitivity, suggesting its importance in assessing competitive dynamics.
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