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Published on: June 30, 2020
Climate-driven collapse risk in Chilean Araucaria forests
Alberto J Alaniz1, Alexis Barrios-Saravia2, Jorge Muñoz Paul2
1Departamento de Ciencias Biológicas Animales, Facultad de Ciencias Veterinarias y Pecuarias, Universidad de Chile, Chile; Laboratorio de Biodiversidad y Medio Ambiente (BIOMA), Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
Journal of Environmental Management
|August 12, 2026
Summary
Chilean Araucaria forests face critical endangerment due to climate change and drought. Urgent conservation is needed to protect these ancient temperate ecosystems from collapse.
Area of Science:
- Ecosystem ecology
- Climate change science
- Conservation biology
Background:
- Temperate coniferous forests, like Araucaria araucana in Chile, are underrepresented in global collapse-risk assessments.
- These ancient and culturally significant ecosystems face synergistic threats from climate change and land-use transformation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the collapse risk of four distinct Araucaria ecosystems in Chile using the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems framework.
- To quantify historical, current, and future degradation by integrating distributional and functional criteria.
Main Methods:
- Utilized national forest cadasters, ecological niche modeling (ENM), and multi-source remote sensing (Landsat, MODIS) and geospatial data (TerraClimate, WorldClim).
- Assessed changes in ecosystem extent, climatic conditions, and functioning through historical reconstruction, recent trend analysis, and future projections under climate change scenarios.
- Incorporated indicators of water stress and canopy dynamics to evaluate ecosystem functioning.
Main Results:
- All evaluated Araucaria ecosystems showed severe historical contraction (>74%) and significant recent declines, especially Andean systems (>46%).
- Climate change projections indicate substantial habitat loss, with coastal Araucaria forests potentially losing suitable conditions by 2060.
- Functional indicators revealed increasing drought stress, heightened vegetation water demand, and persistent canopy loss, signaling climate-driven degradation.
Conclusions:
- All four Araucaria ecosystems were classified as Critically Endangered, with coastal Araucaria Forest being the most threatened.
- Climate change, particularly prolonged drought, is identified as the primary driver of ecosystem collapse risk, surpassing land-use influences in recent decades.
- Integrating remote sensing with standardized risk frameworks effectively detects early warning signals of ecosystem collapse, necessitating urgent conservation and restoration efforts.
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