System-wide modeling approaches for integrating supply chains into food security analysis: lessons from Uganda...

Area of Science:

• Food security analysis
• Supply chain management
• Systems modeling

Background:

• Traditional food security modeling often overlooks supply chains, especially in famine-prone areas.
• Predictive models struggle with data scarcity and rapid changes common in vulnerable regions.
• A system-wide perspective is crucial for understanding complex food security dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present an adapted system mapping approach for analyzing supply chains in data-limited, volatile settings.
• To demonstrate the utility of descriptive and prescriptive models where prediction is infeasible.
• To support resilience-building efforts in food-insecure regions.

Main Methods:

• Employed a 6-year collaboration with USAID in Uganda.
• Utilized an adapted system mapping approach, focusing on descriptive and prescriptive models.
• Applied the methodology to the Karamoja region to assess household resilience.

Main Results:

• The adapted system mapping approach enabled system-level analysis despite data limitations.
• Highlighted the critical role of supply chains in determining resilience outcomes in Karamoja.
• Facilitated collective sense-making and collaboration among practitioners.

Conclusions:

• An adapted system mapping approach provides actionable insights for food security in challenging environments.
• Descriptive and prescriptive models are valuable alternatives to predictive models when data is scarce.
• Strengthening supply chains is essential for enhancing household resilience in famine-prone regions.