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Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Wheat Quality During Long-Term Storage: Comparative Analysis and
Diana Petronela Poetelea1, Emilian Mosnegutu1, Claudia Tomozei1
1Department of Environmental Engineering, Mechanical Engineering and Agritourism, Faculty of Engineering, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, 600115 Bacau, Romania.
Foods (Basel, Switzerland)
|August 13, 2026
Summary
Interannual climate variability impacts wheat quality during storage. Predictive models show climate variations affect hygrothermal conditions, leading to faster quality degradation and informing adaptive grain management strategies.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Food Science
Background:
- Long-term grain storage is crucial for food security.
- Climate variability poses challenges to maintaining stored grain quality.
- Understanding these impacts is essential for effective post-harvest management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of interannual climate variability on wheat quality during storage.
- To develop empirical predictive models for wheat quality indicators under varying environmental conditions.
- To assess the impact of climate-driven hygrothermal changes on wheat quality deterioration.
Main Methods:
- Continuous monitoring of environmental parameters (temperature, relative humidity) and wheat quality indicators (moisture, test weight, gluten, protein).
- Development of nonlinear regression and curve-fitting models (TableCurve 3D) for predicting quality evolution.
- Analysis of two consecutive storage periods (2023-2024 and 2024-2025) with differing climate variability.
Main Results:
- Models demonstrated high predictive performance (R² = 0.82–0.97, NSE = 0.95–0.99).
- The 2024-2025 storage period showed increased thermal variability, impacting moisture dynamics.
- Greater reductions in test weight, gluten, and protein content were observed during the more variable climate period.
Conclusions:
- Interannual climate variability significantly affects hygrothermal conditions during grain storage.
- Climate-induced changes accelerate wheat quality deterioration processes.
- The developed models offer reliable tools for predicting quality changes and supporting adaptive storage management strategies in a changing climate.
