Containing outbreaks at their source: an illustrative example of partial economic returns to US global health...

Following the 2014-2016 West Africa Ebola epidemic, the US expanded funding for global health security (GHS) to strengthen outbreak prevention, detection, and response capacity across countries. In this viewpoint, we offer an illustrative comparison between one narrow category of economic benefit to the US - avoided losses in merchandise exports - and US GHS funding directed to the region between 2016 and 2023. Using a transparent accounting identity, we compared US export losses plausibly averted through the local containment of ten Ebola outbreaks during this period against estimated regional GHS appropriations of USD 2.52 billion, applying the 2014 losses as a benchmark and a range of scenarios to reflect uncertainty in the scale of disruption averted. Under the benchmark scenario, each USD of funding corresponded to approximately USD 4.64 in avoided export-related losses. This scoping exercise is intended to convey the order of magnitude of potential returns, rather than a measured economic return or causal attribution, and it deliberately excludes broader benefits. Even through this narrow trade-based lens, the findings suggest that the economic value of containing outbreaks abroad may be large enough to warrant consideration in U.S. budget discussions.