Domain-specific and generalised motivational pathways to STEM degree attainment: a 10-year longitudinal mediation...

Understanding how adolescent motivational beliefs relate to long-term STEM degree attainment is a central question in educational psychology. Drawing on expectancy-value theory, this study examined whether math self-efficacy (a domain-specific belief) and academic utility value (a generalised belief about the instrumental importance of education) in Grade 10 were associated with STEM degree attainment at age 26, and whether educational expectations in Grade 12 mediated these associations. Data came from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, a nationally representative U.S. sample followed from 2002 to 2012 (N = 16,197). Structural equation modelling yielded two main findings. First, math self-efficacy was associated with STEM attainment primarily through a direct pathway, with its indirect pathway via expectations being smaller in magnitude. Second, academic utility value exhibited full mediation: its direct association with STEM attainment was not distinguishable from zero, whereas its indirect association through educational expectations was significant and accounted for approximately 85% of the total association. Family socioeconomic status was associated with educational expectations but showed no direct association with STEM attainment. These findings were robust across ten supplementary analyses, including one that included Grade 10 educational expectations as an additional covariate. The available items confound domain anchoring with the expectancy-value distinction, so findings are discussed with respect to both interpretations. These results suggest that efforts to broaden STEM participation may benefit from addressing domain-specific competence beliefs alongside students' broader educational ambitions.