Biological Resectability in Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Nomogram-Based Continuous Risk Model to Define Borderline...

Resectability in colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) is traditionally defined by technical feasibility; however, a biologically based definition of borderline resectable disease has not been established. We evaluated the prognostic impact of KRAS mutation and developed a model for biological risk stratification.

This multi-institutional retrospective study included 584 patients undergoing initial hepatectomy for CRLM. The impact of KRAS mutation was assessed according to primary tumor sidedness and tumor burden score (TBS). A nomogram predicting overall survival (OS) was constructed using independent prognostic factors and compared with established clinical risk scores.

KRAS mutation was identified in 36.8% of patients and was associated with worse OS (median survival: 47.3 vs. 70.6 months, p = 0.0006) and recurrence-free survival. This adverse impact was observed in left-sided tumors but not in right-sided tumors. TBS stratified prognosis in KRAS wild-type but not in mutant cases, suggesting that tumor biology may outweigh morphology. A nomogram incorporating KRAS status, TBS, CA19-9, primary nodal status, and extrahepatic disease demonstrated improved discriminatory ability compared with conventional models and stratified recurrence patterns, including extrahepatic recurrence.

The prognostic impact of KRAS mutation depends on tumor sidedness and is independent of tumor morphology. Our nomogram provides a continuous biological risk assessment and may facilitate biological risk stratification and support future refinement of the concept of biologically borderline resectable CRLM.