Hierarchical Decision-Making Theory: A Cognitive-Affective Framework for Explaining Decision Quality

Drawing on the trade-off patterns of "smaller-sooner-loss for larger-later-gain" (SSL-LLG) and "smaller-sooner-gain for larger-later-loss" (SSG-LLL), this study proposes a hierarchical decision-making theory from a dual-system (cognitive-affective) perspective. The theory posits that decision quality arises from the synergy between cognitive maturity-the capacity to weigh long-term interests-and emotional maturity-the ability to maintain affective independence. This yields a four-type, three-level taxonomy of decision makers. We tested our hypotheses across behavioral experiments, eye-tracking, and large-sample surveys. Results show that cognitive maturity promotes long-term orientation and deeper information processing, with higher-maturity individuals re-representing choices and generating latent dimensions, thereby extending reaction time. Emotional maturity underpins decision stability, buffering external influences and sustaining rational expectations. The two systems interact dynamically: cognition guides state affect, while emotion modulates cognitive resource allocation. Among the high-cognition ("Chikui") group, those with high self-differentiation focus on value dimensions and probabilities, showing greater positive affect and pupil dilation; those with low self-differentiation attend to both value and perceptual cues but neglect probabilities, accompanied by lower positive affect. The three hierarchical levels exhibit systematic differences in process indicators (reaction time, emotional stability) and outcomes (socioeconomic status), in the order high > middle > low. Theoretical contributions include (a) a novel typological framework that moves beyond trait-based models to quantify decision quality, (b) elucidation of the cognitive-emotional dynamic interplay, and (c) practical implications for talent evaluation, strategic management, behavioral intervention, and research on mixed intertemporal choice and social mobility.