Market Diversification and Mango Exports in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Peru and Colombia, 2004-2024

Within global agri-food trade, mango has become a tropical fruit of strategic relevance. However, export growth is sustainable only when it is supported by diversified markets, competitive stability, and access to destinations with effective purchasing capacity. This study examines market diversification and mango export competitiveness in Peru and Colombia, two emerging economies, during 2004-2024. A quantitative, longitudinal, and non-experimental design was applied using trade data from Trade Map, macroeconomic indicators from the World Bank, geographic distance data from CEPII GeoDist, and information on trade agreements from official sources. The analysis combined export performance indicators, normalized revealed comparative advantage, normalized relative purchasing capacity, the temporal stability of international demand, and a gravity model estimated through EGLS with PCSE correction. The results reveal a clear structural difference between the two countries. Peru increased its mango exports from USD 42.028 million in 2004 to USD 316.986 million in 2024 and maintained positive values of normalized revealed comparative advantage throughout the period. Colombia expanded its exports from USD 806 thousand to USD 15.037 million, although its competitive position became positive only from 2020 onward. The normalized relative purchasing capacity index identified the Netherlands, France, Spain, and the United States as the most important demand markets, while the stability analysis showed greater persistence among importers after 2018. The gravity model indicated that exporter GDP, destination population, and trade agreements were positively associated with exports. Overall, Peru has a consolidated export structure, whereas Colombia remains in an expansion phase and requires greater market diversification and consolidation to strengthen its international export sustainability.