[Spatial-temporal Evolution of Land-use Carbon Emissions and Differentiated Carbon Compensation in the...

Understanding the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of land-use carbon emissions and corresponding carbon compensation mechanisms is essential for optimizing regional low-carbon development pathways and achieving carbon peak and neutrality targets. This study investigates 144 counties within the Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle （CCEC） during 2000-2022 by establishing a county-level carbon accounting framework and a compensation valuation model based on land use， agricultural production， energy consumption， and socioeconomic data. The results indicate that： ① Total carbon emissions increased sharply from 4.95×10⁷ t in 2000 to a peak of 1.20×10⁸ t in 2010 before declining to 1.04×10⁸ t in 2022. High-emission zones were concentrated in the core areas of Chengdu and Chongqing， while the Qinba Mountains and western Sichuan served as major carbon sinks. Total carbon sequestration reached 5.79×10⁷ t in 2022， representing an increase of 9.96×10⁵ t compared with that in 2000. ② Carbon compensation exhibited a pronounced "core-periphery" gradient： Urban cores， exemplified by Wuhou District with emissions of 5.14×10⁶ t in 2022， were the primary compensation payers， whereas ecological and agricultural regions benefitted from strong sequestration capacity. Xuanhan County， with a sequestration volume of 1.6×10⁶ t， ranked among the leading compensation recipients. ③ A strong spatial coupling existed between carbon emissions， economic development， and carbon compensation. Although carbon intensity declined in economically developed areas， absolute emissions remained high， whereas ecological function zones maintained stable carbon sink capacities owing to low human disturbance and relatively stable land use. This imbalance intensified the spatial mismatch between emission responsibilities and compensation capacities. The findings provide robust scientific evidence for implementing targeted emission reduction policies and refining differentiated carbon compensation mechanisms in the CCEC.