Checking Wilderness Through Conservation Genetics: The Case of the European Wildcat in the Central Apennines, Italy

The European wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris, EWC) is threatened by habitat fragmentation, hybridisation with domestic cats, and climate change, yet its distribution and genetic status in Italy remain poorly resolved. Here, we developed a species distribution model (SDM) based on 69 occurrence records compiled from published sources to identify suitable habitats across the Italian peninsula and characterised 23 newly collected occurrences from the Central-Southern Apennines, which included associated biological samples. The model identified forest and grassland cover and elevation as the main predictors of occurrence, with high suitability concentrated in the Apennine and Alpine regions. Most newly collected occurrences fell within areas of high predicted suitability. Given the potential phenotypic overlap among wildcats, domestic cats, and admixed individuals, we complemented the ecological assessment with mitochondrial DNA (MT-ND5) analysis to characterise the maternal lineages of phenotypically identified wildcats and assess their correspondence with previously described wildcat and domestic cat haplotypes. Mitochondrial analysis (MT-ND5) revealed that 85% of individuals carried haplotypes shared between wildcats and domestic cats, whereas only 10% carried haplotypes previously reported exclusively in wildcats. These patterns indicate a predominance of shared maternal lineages, but given the limitations of mtDNA, they cannot alone be interpreted as evidence of contemporary hybridisation. Our results provide a first country-wide assessment of habitat suitability for the EWC in Italy and highlight the value of integrating ecological modelling with empirical occurrence and genetic data to support conservation planning.