Unconditional Cash Transfers and Early Child Maltreatment

Newborns are at the greatest risk of maltreatment. Governments are experimenting with unconditional cash transfers to strengthen families and decrease the risk of child abuse and neglect. The purpose of this study was to determine if unconditional cash transfers decreased contact with child welfare and substantiated reports of maltreatment early in life. The sample included all births from 2019 through 2024 across the 62 most populous cities in Michigan, of which only Flint implemented the cash transfer program. The birth data were supplemented with city-level demographic characteristics obtained from the American Community Survey. Child welfare data were obtained from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Synthetic control method (SCM) was used to construct a synthetic version of Flint, a weighted average of the 61 untreated cities, which approximates Flint's pre-treatment trajectory in both outcomes and relevant predictors. SCM relies on the notion that a weighted combination of control units may match Flint's pre-treatment trajectory better than any single untreated unit. Estimates indicate no differences in overall referrals to child protection and no differences in substantiated reports of maltreatment. Results are consistent across abuse and neglect allegations. In addition, the estimated effects fail a simple timing test: declines in CPS contact are not larger for births with greater prenatal exposure to the cash transfer, which is inconsistent with changes in CPS involvement being driven by Rx Kids payments. There is no evidence that unconditional cash transfers totaling $1,500 at mid-pregnancy and $500 per month affect contact with child protection or substantiated allegations of maltreatment within the first six months of life.