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[Retrospective Analysis and Model-Based Prediction of HIV/HBV/HCV/TP Test Results among Voluntary Blood Donors in
Lu-Lu He1, Ya-Qiong He1, Chun-Ling Li2
1North Anhui Health Vocational College,Suzhou 234000, Anhui Province, China.
Objective:
To evaluate and predict the prevalence of HIV, HBV, HCV, and TP among voluntary blood donors in Suzhou City, and to provide a reference for developing scientific strategies for voluntary blood donation and reducing the discard of unqualified blood units.
Methods:
Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and nucleic acid amplification testing (NAT) were used to detect HIV, HBV, HCV, and TP in blood samples from voluntary blood donors in Suzhou City from 2021 to 2023. The demographic characteristics of donors positive for the above-mentioned pathogens were identified by univariate analysis, while exponential smoothing method was utilized to analyze the temporal trends of the HIV, HBV, HCV, and TP infections.
Results:
A total of 66 015 voluntary blood donors were enrolled in this study, of whom 0.91% tested positive for at least one pathogen. The positivity rates of the four pathogens ranked in descending order as follows: TP（0.38%）, HBV（0.29%）, HCV（0.18%）, and HIV（0.07%）. During the research period, the positive rates of all four pathogens showed a sustained downward trend. The overall infection rate of the four pathogens was associated with age, occupation, and education level: the highest combined positivity rates of the four pathogens were identified among individuals aged 45-60 years, farmers, and those with junior high school education or below; the lowest combined positivity rates were observed in young adults aged 18-24 years, students, and those with a bachelor's degree or above. The annual number of positive cases for the four pathogens showed periodic fluctuation with a significant seasonal pattern. Peaks tend to occur in the first quarter, while troughs tend to occur in the third quarter. The goodness-of-fit test of the simple seasonal exponential smoothing model showed that BIC, stationary R2, RMSE, and MAPE were 3.106, 0.839, 4.278, and 22.264, respectively, with the Ljung-Box statistic being 22.508 (P >0.05). The model forecasts 193（95% CI ：89-297） positive blood donors for the four major pathogens in 2024, indicating a slight decrease from 2023. The positivity rates were predicted to peak in January-February and reach the nadir in July-August.
Conclusion:
In recent years, the overall epidemiological situation of HIV, HBV, HCV, and TP infections among voluntary blood donors in Suzhou City has shown a steady and favorable improvement. It is recommended that more targeted strategies for voluntary blood donation be formulated by combining the seasonal fluctuation trends of the four pathogens and the demographic characteristics of the positive population.
