Comprehensive index framework for assessing waterlogging risk in winter wheat across key growth stages in China's...

Climate change has intensified extreme precipitation events, increasing waterlogging risks that threaten agricultural productivity, particularly in China's main winter wheat-producing regions. This study developed a comprehensive framework for assessing waterlogging risk by integrating three dimensions: meteorological drivers (a cumulative wetness index derived from precipitation and crop evapotranspiration), environmental susceptibility (derived from soil texture, slope, and topography), and agricultural exposure (winter wheat cultivation area).

During the green-up to heading stage, the proportion of station-years affected by slight waterlogging disasters was 17.9%, that by moderate disasters was 16.8%, and that by severe disasters was 13.6%. During the heading to maturity stage, this proportion decreased to 14.3% for slight waterlogging disasters, to 7.0% for moderate disasters, and to 1.4% for severe disasters. Meteorological risk exhibited a spatial gradient from northwest to southeast during the earlier stage and decreased markedly in the later stage, except in southern Anhui. Areas of high to extremely high comprehensive risk were identified in southern and central Anhui, central-eastern Hubei, southern and eastern Jiangsu, and southern Henan during the green-up to heading stage, with significant reductions during the subsequent stage.

Waterlogging risk in the study area was highly stage-dependent and spatially heterogeneous, with the green-up to heading stage identified as the most vulnerable period. The southern provinces faced substantially greater waterlogging threats than the northern wheat-producing regions. These findings provide vital insights for targeted disaster mitigation and climate adaptation strategies in winter wheat production. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.