The SUPA mechanisms of crime opportunity evolution

The nature of crime is changing, and so are the opportunities that enable it. Fifty years since the seminal work on crime as opportunity, we suggest that there is a need to consider ways to measure how and why opportunities have evolved. Specifically, we propose four mechanisms of crime opportunity evolution, inspired by biological speciation theory and adapted here to account for the cultural transmission of criminal behaviour, with evolution measured through changes in modus operandi. These are the SUPA mechanisms: Space-Driven (allopatric), Utility-Motivated (sympatric), Pressure-Driven (peripatric), and Attraction-Led (parapatric). We connect these mechanisms of evolution to crime opportunity theory and situational crime prevention. Space-driven opportunities arise through distinct geographic contexts; utility-motivated as a result of success (through choice or chance) within the same opportunity context (often made possible by new tools or technologies); pressure-driven evolution through the blocking of prior crime context-mechanism combinations; and, attraction-led evolution through a voluntary change in context. We illustrate each mechanism with historical examples, discuss how we might best prepare for each type, and consider how the SUPA mechanisms might apply to horizon scanning and future crime prevention practice.