Effectiveness and Cost Evaluation of Cure Violence in New York City: A Natural Experiment

Cure Violence is a community violence intervention program that seeks to reduce gun violence by employing credible messengers to mediate conflicts and engage individuals at high risk of victimization, with the goal of shifting community norms. This study examines the effectiveness and cost-benefit of Cure Violence programs in New York City using a natural experiment created by the staggered rollout of programs across police precincts. Using NYPD shooting incident data from 2006 to 2023, we estimate the impact of Cure Violence on shootings using difference-in-differences and event study models, leveraging variation in program timing and geographic placement to address alternative explanations for changes in violence. On average, the presence of Cure Violence in a precinct is associated with a significant 14% [IRR = 0.86, 95% CI = 0.81,0.92] reduction in shootings relative to the counterfactual of no Cure program. This reduction occurs immediately in the year of implementation and persists over time. Our estimates imply that New York City would have experienced 7.6% more shootings between 2012 and 2023 in the absence of Cure Violence, corresponding to 1296 shootings avoided. Using published estimates of the societal cost of criminal gun violence, we find that these reductions generated a net social surplus of $2.45 billion, yielding a benefit-cost ratio of 6.5:1. These findings suggest that Cure Violence is an effective and cost-efficient strategy for reducing shootings. Policymakers can use these estimates to inform decisions about program expansion and funding.