How Fast Is Thin Air? Empirical Altitude Adjustments for Indoor Track-and-Field Performance

In this study, we analyze the effects of altitude on athletic performance for running events and speed-dependent jumping events at indoor meets, and we evaluate whether the NCAA's altitude adjustment process is accurate.

We analyzed 688,625 running results and 215,933 jumping results from NCAA indoor competitions at 382 different indoor venues. We estimated altitude effects using athlete × season fixed effects. For running events 200 m and longer, we included a banked-track indicator to separate altitude from the mechanical advantage of a banked oval.

Altitude improved sprint times by 0.3% to 0.5%/1000 m and jumping marks by 0.5% to 0.7%/1000 m. Pole vault improvements (0.66%-0.69%/1000 m) matched the quadratic speed-to-height prediction (h ∝ v2). For distance events, the altitude penalty (added time) rose from 0.5% to 0.9%/1000 m at 800 m to 2.7% to 3.0%/1000 m at 5000 m; the drag-oxygen crossover lay between 400 m and 800 m. The women's 800 m was penalized approximately twice as severely as the men's (0.92 vs 0.50%/1000 m). NCAA sprint corrections accounted for only 42% to 71% of the observed effects.

NCAA sprint corrections under-correct sharply once track banking is accounted for; the 800 m requires sex-specific adjustments; and the absence of any field-event correction is a clear gap in the existing system.