Longitudinal changes in adolescent e-cigarette use intentions: Risk and protective factors

E-cigarette use among adolescents in Guam, a U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Island in the Western Pacific, is more prevalent than in the U.S. overall. This disparity underscores the importance of understanding why and how adolescents in Guam intend to use e-cigarettes. Using data from a three-wave survey collected over 4 months in middle schools, we examined risk and protective factors associated with longitudinal changes in the intention to use e-cigarettes (N = 538; 10-15 years old, M = 12.45, SD = .94, 52% male, 48% female). In parallel process latent growth curve modeling (PP-LGCM), the results showed that, at the intercept and slope, e-cigarette social influence, e-cigarette peer influence, perceived permissiveness of e-cigarette use, and depressive symptoms positively predicted the intention to use e-cigarettes across time, while parental support negatively predicted it. Additionally, latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM) revealed three groups of adolescents with different trajectories of e-cigarette use intentions: high-increasing, low-decreasing, and moderate-increasing. The results also indicated that peer influence regarding e-cigarettes predicted membership in the high-increasing group more strongly and membership in the low-decreasing group less strongly than membership in the moderate-increasing group. Social influence and depressive symptoms predicted membership in the high-increasing or moderate-increasing group more strongly than membership in the low-decreasing group. The results and their implications are discussed in the context of Pacific Island culture.