Implementation of a model for census prediction and control

A model is described that predicts hospital census and computes, for each day, the number of elective admissions that will maximize the census over the short run, subject to constraints on the probability of overflow. Where a computer is available the model provides detailed predictions of census in units as small as 10 beds; used with manual computation the model allows production of tables of the recommended numbers of elective admissions to the hospital as a whole. The model has been tested in five hospitals and is part of the admissions system in two of them; implementation is described, and the results obtained are discussed.