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Optic neuritis in relation to multiple sclerosis.

E Kahana, M Alter, S Feldman

    Journal of Neurology
    |August 6, 1976
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Optic neuritis patients have a significant risk of developing multiple sclerosis. A nationwide Israeli study found that approximately 32% of optic neuritis patients developed multiple sclerosis within 10 years.

    Area of Science:

    • Neurology
    • Epidemiology

    Background:

    • Optic neuritis is a significant risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS).
    • Previous estimates for optic neuritis progressing to MS varied widely (13%-87%).

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To determine the long-term risk of developing multiple sclerosis after optic neuritis.
    • To compare the incidence of optic neuritis and multiple sclerosis in Israel.

    Main Methods:

    • A nationwide prospective study of 105 optic neuritis patients in Israel (1955-1964).
    • Patients were followed for a mean of 9.5 years.
    • Life-table analysis was used to estimate cumulative incidence of MS.

    Main Results:

    • The annual incidence of optic neuritis was 0.56 per 10(5) population, half that of MS (1.2 per 10(5)).

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  • 28% of patients developed MS during follow-up.
  • Life-table analysis predicted 32.3% risk of MS within 10 years, and 50% within 14 years.
  • Younger age at optic neuritis onset correlated with higher MS risk.

    • Conclusions:

    • Optic neuritis is a strong predictor of future multiple sclerosis development.
    • Life-table analysis provides a reliable prognostic tool for optic neuritis patients.
    • The risk of developing MS after optic neuritis is substantial, particularly within the first decade.