Global and local control of choice behavior by cyclically varying outcome probabilities

Subjects asked to simulate decision makers in a competitive bidding situation chose repeatedly between two alternatives; reward probability varied according to a sine wave function of time for one alternative but was held constant over time for the other. Learning functions for choice probability exhibited the wavelike pattern predicted by a statistical learning model. However, on later transfer trials, when success probability was independent of subjects' choices, their choice behavior continued to follow a wavelike function rather than approaching the constant .5 level predicted by the learning model. A possible basis in memory for the transfer performance was revealed in subjects' sketches of the remembered pattern of variation in reward probabilities. It is concluded that choice performance is controlled by a mixture of local feedback, in a manner described by the learning model, and more global information encoded in an abstract memory representation, with the balance of the influence shifting toward the latter when local feedback becomes uninformative.