Factors predicing survival after portacaval shunt: a multiple linear regression analysis

The predictive value of 15 pre- and peroperative parameters upon survival after portacaval shunt was analyzed in a retrospective investigation of 134 elective operations. A multiple linear regression model was used. Survival was measured at three different points of time: one month, one year and five years after the operation. Survival at one month was influenced by the parameters bilirubin/s and ascites only. Survival at one year was influenced by albumin/s, sex, bilirubin/s, BSP, heart disease history and ascites Survival at five years was influenced by albumin/s, alkaline phosphatase/s, history of alcohol abuse, and globulin/s. These findings indicate that prediction of survival after portacaval shunt is an intricate process and that considerable improvement of the child criteria is possible.