Manpower planning for physical medicine and rehabilitation: comment on GMENAC process

Although physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) was not analyzed by the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC) Delphi Adjusted Needs Based Modeling process completed in 1980, a provisional manpower requirement estimate of 3,200 physiatrists was included in the final report. In late 1981 and early 1982, the GMENAC model was used and an official 1990 estimate of 4,060 physiatrists needed, with only 2,400 physiatrists available, was determined. This report summarizes the initial correspondence and the assessment study methods for PM&R utilized to attain these estimates. Considerable variability of the numbers determined by the Delphi Panel is apparent. These estimates have been accepted by the Office of Graduate Medical Education and although no official action has ensued, the results are on record for future manpower planning and may be a factor in the current interest of medical students in the specialty of PM&R.