Accuracy of serum gentamicin concentration predictions generated by a personal-computer software system

Predictions of serum gentamicin concentration and half-life, using a personal-computer software system (SIMKIN [simulated kinetics]), were compared for accuracy as increasing amounts of patient-specific data were supplied to the computer. Data for a two-year period were collected for patients of a hospital's pharmacokinetic consultation service; the study group included adults who had at least one serum concentration for which time of last gentamicin dose was recorded. Input variables were age, weight, height, sex, serum creatinine concentration, concomitant drugs and diseases, gentamicin dosage, time of infusion, dosing interval, number of doses on each regimen, and time and reported value of all serum gentamicin concentrations. Individualized dosing regimens were calculated on the basis of literature estimates, and half-life and serum concentrations were then estimated for these regimens and compared with actual values. One or two measured serum concentrations were then added to the input data. The computer-estimated half-lives (obtained from single-point or two-point analysis in different dosage intervals) were compared with the half-lives determined from actual serum concentration data. Gentamicin serum concentrations were similarly compared. The computer's ability to predict subsequent serum concentrations improved in sequence for literature-averaged prediction and single-point and multipoint analysis. Accuracy of predicting whether peak concentrations were therapeutic or subtherapeutic and whether trough concentrations were toxic also improved as more patient-specific data were input. SIMKIN appropriately evaluated demographic and laboratory data and adequately predicted gentamicin half-lives and serum concentrations.