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Assessing cohort birth expectations data from the Current Population Survey, 1971-1981
Demography
|August 1, 1983
Summary
Fertility expectations of married women in 1971 accurately predicted their lifetime births, even with delayed childbearing. Unanticipated changes in marital status for single women were key to 1970s fertility trends.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Reproductive Health
Background:
- Fertility trends and birth expectations are crucial for demographic analysis.
- Understanding factors influencing childbearing patterns is essential for population studies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the predictive accuracy of birth expectations for completed cohort fertility.
- To analyze the impact of marital status changes on fertility predictions.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of fertility supplements data from the Current Population Survey (1971-1981).
- Comparison of lifetime birth expectations with actual completed cohort fertility.
Main Results:
- Aggregate lifetime birth expectations of married women (18-39) in 1971 closely matched their completed fertility.
- Younger women (18-24) delayed childbearing but achieved expectations by the decade's end.
- Fertility prediction inaccuracies stemmed from unanticipated marital and childbearing patterns of single women.
Conclusions:
- Birth expectations are valuable predictors of completed cohort fertility.
- Adjustments for changing proportions of married women within cohorts are necessary for accurate predictions.