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Evaluation of a testing program for aflatoxin in corn.

T B Whitaker, J W Dickens

    Journal - Association of Official Analytical Chemists
    |September 1, 1983
    PubMed
    Summary
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    A computer model simulated aflatoxin testing, revealing the North Carolina Department of Agriculture (NCDA) program accepted 7.3% of contaminated corn meal lots, posing consumer risk. The model achieved 94% accuracy in its predictions.

    Area of Science:

    • Food Science
    • Analytical Chemistry
    • Risk Assessment

    Background:

    • Aflatoxins are toxic compounds found in food, posing health risks.
    • Accurate testing programs are crucial for regulating aflatoxin levels in food products.
    • The North Carolina Department of Agriculture (NCDA) has a testing program for aflatoxin in corn meal.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a computer model simulating the NCDA aflatoxin testing program.
    • To evaluate the effectiveness and identify risks associated with the NCDA testing program.
    • To account for sampling and analytical variability in aflatoxin testing.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a computer model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques.
    • Incorporation of conditional probabilities due to multiple sample testing.

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  • Application of the model to 1000 hypothetical corn meal lots with historical aflatoxin distribution.

    • Main Results:

    • The NCDA testing program was predicted to accept 79.5% and reject 20.5% of corn meal lots.
    • Accepted lots averaged 5.7 ppb aflatoxin, while rejected lots averaged 64.2 ppb.
    • The program accepted 7.3% of lots exceeding 20 ppb (consumer risk) and rejected 1.0% below 20 ppb (processor risk).

    Conclusions:

    • The computer model provides a valuable tool for evaluating aflatoxin testing programs.
    • The NCDA program demonstrates a 94% overall correct decision rate.
    • Identified risks include consumer exposure to aflatoxin in accepted lots and processor risk from rejected lots.