Determination of the physical working capacity in children using three different regression models

Experimental findings of the working capacity at a heart rate of 170 bts/min (W170) were compared to predicted values. Statistical tests were applied to examine the suitability and the error of prediction of three different regression models: a linear regression line, a polynomial regression model, and a "break point" regression model, which were compared to the time course of the heart rate during a linearly increasing work load from 0 to 100 W during 10 min. For this study the results of 28 children, 15 and 16 years old, and students of physical education were investigated. When a linear regression line was compared to these data, systematic deviations between measured data and the values estimated by this model were found. When the W170 was predicted using this model from the data collected during the first 10 min of an exercise procedure for the determination of the heart rate index, the physical working capacity was overestimated. The polynomial regression model and the "break point" regression model agreed with the time course of the heart rate without systematic error and allowed an unbiased prediction of the W170 from the first 10 min of the exercise test.