[Highly different values for the plausibility of fatherhood and for the exclusion chance (author's transl)]

More than 1800 HLA-typed mother-child-putative father triplets were biostatistically analyzed on the basis of the Essen-Möller principle. 14 of them had W-values (= probability of paternity) of less than 50%, the lowest value being 4,4%. Using a specially designed computer program, exclusion probabilities between 68 and 96% were calculated. This demonstrates (a) that nonexclusion is not necessarily in every case a positive indication of the paternity of the man involved; and (b) that the probability of exclusion as a biological method of establishing paternity is not a suitable piece of evidence. The W-value (= "probability of paternity"), obtained on the basis of the Essen-Möller principle, provides complete information, and is alone conclusive.--The high proportion of non-fullhouse children among the 14 cases allows the conclusion that the more comprehensive the specificity spectrum of the antiserums used in the typing is, the fewer the number of such cases.