A demographic model for performing site-specific health risk projections

An extension of an earlier life table model for estimating health risks in occupationally exposed workers is presented. The extension of the earlier methodology incorporates specific fertility assumptions and therefore produces a model that is able to perform health risk projections for populations living in or around sites that release agents with potentially adverse health consequences. Results show that fertility patterns are important for assessing risk, even for short-term projections. The interaction of initial age structure, competing risks from other causes of death, and fertility patterns are all important in determining future levels of excess mortality from various pollutants.