The predictive value of the premedical grade-point average

The study reported here assessed the relative utility of premedical grade-point average (GPA) in distinguishing among prospective medical students and in predicting the medical school performance of accepted applicants. Students from each of two medical classes were grouped into one of four categories depending on the "selectivity" rating of their premedical, undergraduate institution. Group differences were assessed according to premedical GPAs, Science subtest scores of the Medical College Admission Test, medical school course work, and scores on the Part I and Part II examinations of the National Board of Medical Examiners. Results indicated that although the groups differed significantly on premedical GPA (with mean scores from the less competitive undergraduate colleges exceeding those of the most selective schools), on all other dependent measures no significant differences resulted. It was concluded that "raw" premedical GPA is susceptible to a number of extraneous sources of variance that, unless identified and eliminated, negate its effectiveness in assessing individual differences in past academic achievement and in predicting future medical school performance.