Physical therapy manpower planning. Projection models and scenarios of 1985

Faced with the difficult task of coordinating statewide health education, the Kentucky Council on Higher Education is using several manpower projection statistics as one component of their decision-making process. These manpower data are essential when considering the establishment, expansion, continuation, or termination of health-related academic programs. Three models were used to project manpower requirements for licensed physical therapists in Kentucky. The models were 1) manpower:population ratio, 2) trend analysis based on time series, and 3) the American Physical Therapy Association's health-needs method. Four variants of the manpower:population ratio model are discussed and presented: population ratio based ona 1) national ratio, 2) Kentucky ratio, 3) weighted national ratio, and 4) weighted Kentucky radio. The trend analysis model is presented and discussed. The health-needs approach, based on expert opinion and health-related variables, identifies the quantity and quality of services required to provide the Kentucky population with the best possible care. The paper concludes with three brief scenarios describing the possible effects of the three models and physical therapy in Kentucky. The scenarios unfold from differing assumption about the effects of manpower production on health care. Scenario A is a "current arrangement" scenario. Scenario B considers the effects of predicting future manpower requirements and resources based on the past. Scenario C projects the effects of a comprehensive plan on the goal of producing the best possible care for all Kentuckians.