A multivariate analysis of dichotomous opinions in dissensus disaster

Despite the absence of evidence supporting either environmental or economic damages resulting from the Argo Merchant oil spill of 1976, a questionnaire administered 11 months afterward to 258 randomly selected heads of households in four towns contiguous to the spill revealed that 60 percent thought damages had occurred. In a secondary analysis of the original data to examine the causes of the damage perceptions, a discriminant function was developed on a randomly selected test group and evaluated on a control group. The results support the hypothesis that incorrect damage perceptions resulted from a priori views on the part of younger, socially conscious, higher-achieving heads of households. Support is indicated for the hypothesis that a priori perceptions were reinforced after the event. The index for total discriminating power was .43 for the test group and .38 for the control group. Television was the major media information source.