Prediction of long-term outcome for heroin addicts admitted to a methadone maintenance program

Ten pre-treatment and nine during-treatment variables were correlated to outcome 5 years after admission to a methadone program for 171 subjects who were in treatment for at least 6 months. The pre-treatment variables were employment, education, criminal involvement, opiate and non-opiate drug abuse, periods of abstinence, age, sex, and ethnic group. During-treatment variables were employment, arrests or incarcerations, opiate and non-opiate drug abuse, living with an addict, marital status, and months of methadone treatment. Three measures of 'successful' outcome were defined. In general, subjects with more involvement with criminal justice before treatment, heavy alcohol use before or during treatment, continued daily heroin use or living with an addict during treatment, or minority ethnicity were more likely to have a poor outcome. However, the correlation coefficients for even the most significant correlations were weak; the highest was r = 0.26. We conclude that none of these 19 variables provide a basis for a priori judgment about whether or not a patient applying for admission to a methadone program is likely to have a favorable long-term outcome.