Estimation of a model of cumulative pregnancy following infertility therapy

Life-table estimation of cumulative pregnancy curves following infertility therapy is an important tool for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy. However, a satisfactory method for summarizing an entire cumulative pregnancy curve in terms of a small number of clinically useful parameters is currently lacking. In the present paper, a model is developed in which cumulative pregnancy is expressed as a function of two parameters: the cure rate and the instantaneous probability of pregnancy among those cured. This model is applied to data on endometriosis and polycystic ovary syndrome, and the resulting predicted cumulative pregnancy curves almost perfectly follow the observed data.