Estrogen receptor quantitation and staging as complementary prognostic indicators in breast cancer: a study of 583...

Estrogen receptor (ER) quantity was measured at the time of primary diagnosis on 583 patients with breast cancer seen at the major treatment centre in British Columbia between 1975 and 1979. Survival rates (overall, recurrence-free and post-recurrence) were assessed relative to ER concentration, staging, menopausal status, age, differentiation, and therapy. A linear trend in increased survival was demonstrable through variations in ER concentration from less than 1 to greater than 260 fmoles/mg cytosol protein. This trend was highly significant and remained after adjustment for stage, menopausal status, and age, and was seen for all groups of patients except those with metastatic disease. The association of high ER concentration with increased recurrence-free survival was not due to differing responses to adjuvant therapy, but the trend in post-recurrence survival was only significant in patients who had received hormonal therapy. Survival was as strongly associated with receptor concentration as with staging, and these two factors were almost completely independent. A proportional hazards model was fitted to produce predictions of survival, and showed that TNM stage III patients with high ER concentrations have a better survival than stage I or II patients with lower ER concentrations. This suggests that quantitative assessment of ER status is essential to definition of risk in breast cancer patients and that stratification in clinical trials and consideration for adjuvant therapy ought to be guided, in part, by a standardized ER-quantitative determination performed on the primary tumor.