The future and health care technology: implications of a system for early identification

Future and emerging health care technologies are increasingly high-impact events for society in terms of the quality and costs of health care. They raise issues of efficacy, safety, resource allocation, ethics, impact on the organization and delivery of care, and broad social effects. This article describes an analysis of future and emerging health care technology, initiated by the government of the Netherlands and carried out formally from 1985 to 1988, and its potential usefulness in a policy and decision-making context. Using the results and experiences of this analysis, it is argued that rational health care planning and decision-making can be strengthened by paying more attention to the possible implications of emerging and future technology.