[Application of a predictive model for morbidity among middle socioeconomic class infants]

A predictive model which identifies infants who suffer 4 to 5 times more morbidity than their unselected peers was calculated in previous studies, in population of the low socio-economic stratum (SES) (Rev Med Chile 1992; 120: 342-8): Some families of the middle SES also seek care at the Primary Health Care System. Therefore, since our aim is to propose an instrument to be used at this level, the predictive model was applied in families of this stratum. Children identified by means of the model suffered as many episodes of diarrhea but not of other illnesses, as their peers of the low SES (4.8 vs 4.3 respectively). Families in whom the instrument was positive were fewer in the middle SES (6.8 vs 15.7%). Because during the study a campaign to prevent cholera was carried out in Santiago, and this may modify the predictor's performance, at the end of the follow up the model was validated again in families of the low-SES; results confirmed that children with a positive predictor suffered more diarrhea than those of the non-selected population (6.5 vs 3.4 episodes/children/year).