[The calculation of AIDS costs in Spain by simulation technics]

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Health Economics
• Public Health Policy

Context:

• The treatment of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) presents substantial economic challenges for healthcare systems.
• Accurate cost prediction is crucial for resource allocation and policy development in Spain.

Purpose:

• To develop a quantitative model integrating clinical and epidemiological data to estimate the future economic costs of HIV and AIDS treatment in Spain.
• To predict the evolution of HIV/AIDS and associated healthcare expenditures for the Spanish health care system in 1995.

Summary:

• A probabilistic model was created, classifying AIDS patients into early, intermediate, and advanced stages, with associated treatment costs.
• The model, programmed on a spreadsheet, allows for simulating disease progression and its financial impact.
• In 1995, an estimated 22,000 patients with HIV/AIDS required significant hospital resources, projecting costs around 113,000 million pesetas.

Impact:

• The model highlights the substantial healthcare costs associated with HIV and AIDS treatment.
• It underscores the necessity for robust clinical, epidemiological, and economic data to inform effective public health policies and resource management.
• Simulation capabilities enable scenario planning for future healthcare needs and budget allocation.