Early prognostic assessment of acute pancreatitis with sterile necrosis. A perspective clinical study

In an attempt to early assess the prognosis of acute pancreatitis with sterile necrosis, we have perspectively studied 40 patients with necrotizing acute pancreatitis and sterile necrosis in the first 48 hours of disease. As prognostic parameters, we have considered the computed tomography score according to Balthazar, simplified prognostic criteria according to Agarwal, Glasgow criteria and C reactive protein. Patients were divided in A group, 5 patients who died, and B group, 35 patients who survived. Computed tomography score, simplified prognostic criteria and Glasgow criteria were significantly higher in A group than B (9.5 +/- 1 vs 6.3 +/- 1.9, 3.6 +/- 0.5 vs 1.2 +/- 1.2 and 5.4 +/- 1.7 vs 2.7 +/- 1.9 respectively); conversely, C reactive protein serum levels did not show significantly difference in the two groups. We conclude that the extension of pancreatic and extrapancreatic necrosis, as measured by computed tomography, as well as the failure of extrapancreatic organs and the development of systemic and metabolic complications, as assessed by simplified prognostic score and Glasgow criteria, are the most important determinant of prognosis in necrotizing acute pancreatitis with sterile necrosis.