When should bone density measurements be repeated?

We calculated how long to wait before repeating bone mineral density (BMD) measurements to reassess fracture risk. Correlation results from serial measurements of 495 postmenopausal Japanese-American women were used to estimate 95% confidence intervals (CI) for future BMD. After 7 years of follow-up, BMD correlations with the initial measurement ranged between 0.81 and 0.94, depending on age group and measurement site. In this analysis, the period between measurements was defined as the time required for the lower 95% CI to fall below the BMD value corresponding to doubling of fracture risk. Progressive bone loss causes fracture risk to double after 10 years, on average. However, the 95% CIs indicate that a second BMD measurement will detect risk doubling after only 2 or 3 years for some women. For untreated, early postmenopausal women, the period between measurements was approximately 2-5 years for the radius and 4-6 years for the calcaneus, depending on the initial BMD level. The period was approximately 1 year longer for women age 60 and older. Treatments that halve the bone loss rate would increase the period by 1-3 years. In the absence of a second measurement of BMD, the CI will continue to expand with time, corresponding to a wider range in risk between individuals, and a greater proportion of women will be at increased fracture risk. Obtaining a second BMD measurement pinpoints the patient's status within the precision of the measurement. We conclude that repeated BMD measurements will provide a more accurate estimate of fracture risk than a single, baseline measurement.