High sex ratios in China's future

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Public Health

Background:

• Significant demographic shifts in China due to a skewed sex ratio at birth.
• Male births have increasingly outnumbered female births, exceeding natural human population variations.
• This trend carries substantial demographic consequences, particularly for marriage markets.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the demographic impact of China's imbalanced sex ratio at birth.
• To examine the consequences for the first-marriage market.
• To explore potential future trends in the sex ratio at birth.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of demographic data on live births in China.
• Modeling of marriage market dynamics.
• Assessment of factors influencing the sex ratio at birth.

Main Results:

• An estimated 1 million "excess" males annually face marriage market imbalances post-2010.
• Existing models struggle to accommodate the scale of this imbalance.
• The current sex ratio at birth has minimal impact on the likelihood of having a son.

Conclusions:

• The skewed sex ratio at birth in China presents a significant demographic challenge.
• Future increases in the sex ratio at birth are possible, influenced by factors like sex-selective abortion.
• Addressing this imbalance requires understanding its complex social and demographic drivers.