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Longevity and Medicare expenditures

J Lubitz¹, J Beebe, C Baker

¹Office of Research and Demonstrations, Health Care Financing Administration, Baltimore, MD 21207-5187.

The New England Journal of Medicine

|April 13, 1995

Summary

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Increased longevity may not greatly impact Medicare spending; the growing elderly population is the primary driver of future costs. This analysis examines Medicare expenses by age at death and projects future spending based on demographic shifts.

Area of Science:

Gerontology
Health Economics
Public Health Policy

Background:

The elderly population in the U.S. accounts for over one-third of healthcare expenditures.
Life expectancy and the number of individuals over 65 are projected to increase.
Understanding Medicare spending patterns is crucial for future financial planning.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze current Medicare expenses based on age at death.
To project the impact of future demographic changes on Medicare spending.
To evaluate the financial implications of increased longevity in the elderly population.

Main Methods:

Utilized Medicare program data for 129,166 beneficiaries aged 65+ who died in 1989-1990.
Estimated lifetime Medicare payments by age at death, excluding nursing home care.

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Simulated future Medicare payments for cohorts turning 65 in 1990 and 2020.

Main Results:

Lifetime Medicare payments ranged from $13,044 (died at 65) to $65,633 (died at 101+).
Average annual payments and payments per additional year of life decreased with increased age at death.
A projected 7.9% increase in life expectancy beyond 65 by 2020 is associated with a 2.0% rise in lifetime Medicare payments.

Conclusions:

Increased longevity beyond 65 may have a limited effect on Medicare spending.
The substantial growth in the elderly population is the primary factor influencing future Medicare payments.
Policy and financial planning should prioritize the increasing number of older adults.